<br><div data-v-71d2d00b=""><p>Bitcoin (<a target="_blank" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener">BTC</a>) did not ship a Santa rally for Christmas 2023 as Dec. 25 provided much more sideways BTC value motion.</p><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-12/3d49f99d-2245-47c6-bfe0-65b2cb1fb6af.png"/><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Supply: TradingView</em></figcaption></figure><h2>Bitcoin volatility index plumbs lowest ever ranges</h2><p>Knowledge from <a target="_blank" href="https://pro.cointelegraph.com/?via=markets&amp;_ga=2.142027444.742658523.1640948929-762064149.1640948929" rel="noopener">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BINANCE" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView</a> confirmed BTC/USD clinging to a good buying and selling vary round $16,800.</p><p>The pair had stubbornly refused to supply any type of volatility by way of a lot of the week, with an absence of a macro set off reinforcing lackluster efficiency.</p><p>“Bitcoin's volatility is at an all-time low,” William Clemente, founding father of crypto analysis agency Reflexivity, <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1607007954552737794" rel="noopener nofollow">noted</a> alongside a chart of the Bitcoin historic volatility index.</p><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-12/97d803eb-ae15-422f-b234-c4723258b753.png"/><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>Bitcoin historic volatility index 1-week candle chart. Supply: TradingView</em></figcaption></figure><p>He added that the full crypto market cap had retraced everything of its positive aspects from its 2017 highs and was now testing these highs as assist.</p><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-12/c2a3852e-1417-4df0-bf19-00942d647c13.png"/><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>Crypto market cap 1-month candle chart. Supply: TradingView</em></figcaption></figure><p>Dealer and analyst Phoenix in the meantime <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/Phoenix_Ash3s/status/1607016335979978755/photo/1" rel="noopener nofollow">eyed</a> similarities to Christmas 2018, proper after the pit of Bitcoin’s final bear market throughout its earlier halving cycle.</p><p>The size of time between its prior all-time excessive and Christmas lows a yr later, he confirmed, had been broadly comparable — 117 bars and 137 candles for 2018 and 2022, respectively, on the 3-day chart.</p><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-12/b43399f8-e64f-4523-b76f-3a437e877275.png"/><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>BTC/USD annotated chart. Supply: Phoenix/ Twitter</em></figcaption></figure><h2>Worst to return in Q1?</h2><p>Wanting forward, fellow standard analytics account Bagsy had some equally uninspiring information for hodlers going into 2023.</p><p><strong><em>Associated: <a target="_blank" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/xmas-dinner-table-what-to-tell-your-family-about-what-happened-in-crypto-this-year" rel="noopener">Xmas dinner table: What to tell your family about what happened in crypto this year</a></em></strong></p><p>Subsequent yr, he <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/Bagsy/status/1606966536056766465/photo/1" rel="noopener nofollow">forecast</a>, BTC/USD would fail to interrupt above $25,000, leaving the actual restoration to its halving yr, 2024.</p><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-12/7975846d-f766-48e1-b74e-ef5975907c2b.png"/><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>BTC/USD annotated chart. Supply: Bagsy/ Twitter</em></figcaption></figure><p>Even much less optimistic was analyst Toni Ghinea, who on Christmas Eve doubled down on his <a target="_blank" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-dips-below-16-7k-as-us-gdp-meets-fresh-btc-price-death-cross" rel="noopener">theory</a> that subsequent quarter would produce the following bear market trough.</p><p>This did, nonetheless, go away room for a closing dash towards $19,000 within the final week of the yr.</p><p>"Final bull lure at 17.5-19k in December-January. Ultimate crash to 11-14k in Q1 2023," he <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/ToniGhinea/status/1606575120918650881" rel="noopener nofollow">predicted</a>.</p><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-12/7e9ca4df-e048-4c03-b5b8-78f4599857b2.png"/><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>BTC/USD annotated chart. Supply: Toni Ghinea/ Twitter</em></figcaption></figure><p class="post-content__disclaimer">The views, ideas and opinions expressed listed here are the authors’ alone and don't essentially replicate or characterize the views and opinions of Cointelegraph. </p><template data-name="subscription_form" data-type="markets_outlook"/></div><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>