Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX ‘Lehman moment’

<div data-v-887bb764="">Bitcoin (<a target="_blank" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener">BTC</a>) noticed a contemporary rejection at $17,000 on Nov. 18 as nervous markets weathered <a target="_blank" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/ftx-meltdown-triggers-finra-into-probing-crypto-comms" rel="noopener">more FTX fallout</a>.<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-11/033a44fb-55c8-4241-ac74-e6a2a2ed608a.png"/><figcaption style="text-align: center;">BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Supply: TradingView</figcaption></figure><h2>BTC will get a $12,000 worth goal</h2>Knowledge from <a target="_blank" href="https://pro.cointelegraph.com/?via=markets&_ga=2.142027444.742658523.1640948929-762064149.1640948929" rel="noopener">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BINANCE" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView</a> confirmed BTC/USD failing to flip $17,000 to help — a pattern in place for nearly every week.The pair, like main altcoins, remained firmly tied down by chilly ft over the FTX debacle and its <a target="_blank" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-dips-to-16-4k-over-genesis-woes-as-execs-defend-gbtc" rel="noopener">knock-on effects</a> for numerous crypto companies.For analysts, the outlook remained simply as grim, with already dismal forecasts worsening in mild of latest occasions.“This underperformance of all crypto property is right here to remain till the majority of uncertainly has cleared up — seemingly solely close to the flip of the brand new yr,” buying and selling agency QCP Capital wrote in its newest round to Telegram channel subscribers on the day.In an intensive market abstract, QCP wrote that its worth forecasts for each Bitcoin and Ether (<a target="_blank" href="https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-price" rel="noopener">ETH</a>) now needed to drop to replicate the impression of FTX.Updating a <a target="_blank" href="https://qcp.capital/cryptocircular/4-easy-come-easy-go/" rel="noopener nofollow">prognosis</a> based mostly on Elliott Wave principle from June, it confirmed BTC/USD now had a goal of $12,000 and ETH/USD $800.“As a side-note, crypto markets have been buying and selling akin to commodities ever because the 2017 high — with prolonged Wave 5s because the longest wave,” the submit added. <blockquote>“Therefore such potential worth motion with new lows into the brand new yr could be attribute of earlier bear market sell-offs.”</blockquote>An accompanying chart highlighted the divergence between crypto and shares in November, with t correlation between them firmly shaken due to crypto’s underperformance.<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-11/fd70b285-a57f-4ffa-b609-ebec916e1e60.png"/><figcaption style="text-align: center;">BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD vs. S&P 500 chart. Supply: QCP Capital</figcaption></figure>Well-liked dealer and analyst Cantering Clark, in the meantime, famous that if the present bear market in danger property had been to repeat the worldwide monetary disaster, heavy losses had been nonetheless to return.“The Lehman chapter was the climax of the 2008 monetary disaster. It was backside materials qualitatively, however the market paused after which dedicated to 40% decrease,” a part of a tweet <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/CanteringClark/status/1593361572839268355" rel="noopener nofollow">read</a>.<blockquote>“By no means say by no means, and don’t let your guard down.”</blockquote><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-11/5b024bd8-d6b9-4397-882c-5d7ff0f75468.png" alt="" title=""/><figcaption style="text-align: center;">S&P 500 annotated chart. Supply: Cantering Clark/Twitter</figcaption></figure>As Cointelegraph reported, $13,500 <a target="_blank" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-target-now-13-5k-as-btc-trader-says-exit-all-markets" rel="noopener">has also become a popular downside target</a>.<h2>Crypto pie “being lower massively”</h2>Persevering with, QCP additionally voiced considerations over declining volumes and open curiosity (OI) throughout each centralized (CEXs) and decentralized (DEXs) exchanges.Associated: <a target="_blank" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-crypto-exchanges-lead-bitcoin-exodus-over-1-5b-in-btc-withdrawn-in-one-week" rel="noopener">US crypto exchanges lead Bitcoin exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC withdrawn in one week</a>“To date, CEX by-product change volumes have been most affected. Mixed futures OI is now again to pre-2021 ranges, an enormous backward step for the trade,” it wrote.<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-11/a5bdae9e-718a-4632-ac55-54ea7976b32c.png"/><figcaption style="text-align: center;">Bitcoin futures open curiosity chart. Supply: QCP Capital</figcaption></figure>On the subject of DEXs, it mentioned the information “implies the whole crypto pie is being lower massively.”“General DeFi TVL is now lower than 1/4 final yr’s peak!” the submit summarized alongside extra explanatory charts. <blockquote>“Even DEXes which might be anticipated to achieve probably the most, have solely seen volumes rise to Jul/Aug ranges, even with all of the emergency token/stables/chain swapping that wanted to be finished post-FTX.”</blockquote><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-11/aa8aae4c-3bc4-4042-a64a-733cb52335ad.png"/><figcaption style="text-align: center;">DEX volumes chart. Supply: QCP Capital</figcaption></figure>The views and opinions expressed listed below are solely these of the writer and don't essentially replicate the views of Cointelegraph.com. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, it is best to conduct your personal analysis when making a choice. <template data-name="subscription_form" data-type="markets_outlook"/></div><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>